Russian ruble strengthens to below 99 to the US dollar after Trump inauguration

The Russian ruble strengthened to below 99 to the US dollar amid market optimism over easing tensions between Russia and the West over the Ukraine war, following the inauguration of US President Donald Trump.

The ruble had strengthened by 0.9 percent to trade at 98.60 to the dollar by 0815 GMT, the strongest level since Dec. 5, over-the-counter market data showed.

The ruble was 0.3 percent firmer against China’s yuan at 13.53 in trading on the Moscow Stock Exchange (MOEX).

The ruble has strengthened by almost 13 percent against the dollar since the start of the year, becoming the best performing currency across emerging markets in 2025. It gained more than 3 percent since Monday, the day of Trump’s inauguration.

“Ruble purchases may have been driven by the reaction to statements by Trump and (Russian President Vladimir) Putin about their intention to hold negotiations on the Ukrainian conflict in the near future,” said Veles Capital’s Elena Kozhukhova.

She called the ruble’s recent fluctuations “speculative” and said there were “no guarantees of an improvement in the geopolitical situation.

The ruble is supported by increased forex sales by the state and exporting companies and stronger prices for oil, Russia’s main export commodity, which offset the impact of US energy sanctions imposed on Jan. 10.

“Two factors came into play: more active sales by exporters due to the approaching tax payment period, and speculative demand for the ruble amid prevailing expectations of easing geopolitical tensions,” said Denis Popov from PSB Bank.

One-day dollar/ruble futures, which trade on MOEX and are a guide for the over-the-counter exchange rate, were flat at 100.26. The Russian central bank set the official exchange rate at 99.93.