North Korean weapons sales to Russia causing headache for Ukraine

Supplies of North Korean ammunition to Moscow are causing major headaches for Ukraine’s defense as Russia’s full-scale invasion grinds through its third year, said Kyiv’s military intelligence chief.

Once a cargo carrying the weapons docks at a Russian port, Kremlin military activity typically intensifies within eight to nine days and stays that way for about two weeks, Lieutenant General Kyrlyo Budanov said Saturday at the annual Yalta European Strategy conference, organized by businessman Victor Pinchuk.

Pyongyang is “supplying crazy volumes of artillery shells that are critical for the Russian Federation,” Budanov said. “And that is also critical for us. And unfortunately for the time being we cannot do anything about it.”

Russian troops have increased pressure on the Ukrainian army in the eastern region of Donetsk and are slowly advancing in a grinding ground offensive as they outnumber Kyiv in personnel and ammunition.

Moscow’s artillery advantage near the strategically important eastern town of Pokrovsk was 12 shells for every one fired by Ukraine before Kyiv launched its incursion into the Russian region of Kursk in August, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Friday. That’s since narrowed to about 2.5 to 1.

Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu, Putin’s long-time defense secretary, held talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un during a visit this week. Shoigu and Kim discussed a wide range of bilateral and international topics when they met Friday, according to a statement from the Security Council.

Ukraine can track the full supply route of North Korea ammunition from ports to railroads, to storage, and finally to Russian troops on the battlefield, Budanov said. The supplies cause a bigger problem than any other help Russia is getting from other places, including Iran, he said.

While Moscow’s production of tanks and jets is low, it managed to raise production of Iskander missiles, Budanov said. Along with “massive” use of those missiles, Russia’s output of guided bombs has risen significantly.

“And that is a very big problem for the front line, as all those weapons are used on tactical depth, meaning that our soldiers on the contact line and near it are impacted the most,” Budanov said.

Hits deep inside Russian territory, which Ukraine has delivered via drones aimed at oil refineries, weapons caches and other targets, have helped to alter the psychological situation within Russia, he said.

“Before that, the entire Russian population lived in the paradigm that, no matter what, we are a very powerful country, we are the strongest in the world,” he said. “With the first explosions, let’s say, in Moscow, on the territory of the Russian Federation, and so on, it was destroyed. It is the main achievement of all those deep strikes.”

Ukraine is pressing its allies to allow using Western weapons to strike deeper inside Russia to target military objects, many of which have been moved further from the border region.

Budanov, citing what he said were Russian calculations, said he believed Russia would like to end the war by 2026 as it faces an increasingly negative economic and financial situation.