Could Palestine decide the US presidential election?

It has been a dramatic half a month for US politics with a dizzying string of rapid-fire events. Republican candidate and former president, Donald Trump, survived an assassination attempt and emerged bolder and more energised in rallying his base. President Joe Biden withdrew from the presidential race, endorsing his vice president, Kamala Harris, who within a week managed to win enough delegate support to secure the nomination at the upcoming Democratic National Convention set for August 19-22.

Harris has re-invigorated the Democratic campaign, raising more than $200m in donations, getting 100,000 new voters to register, and securing 170,000 new volunteers within just seven days.

She is also doing better at the polls. Her “favourability” score with the American public rose 8 percentage points to 43 percent in one week. Among likely voters, she is currently polling at 47 percent, just one percentage point behind Trump.

Some of Harris’s early success may be attributed to the significant relief many Democrats certainly felt over Biden’s decision to step aside. A whopping 87 percent of registered Democrats supported his withdrawal.

But this early momentum is unlikely to hold all the way to the election in early November. And while Harris brought much-needed change to the Democratic campaign, she also represents continuity with the Biden administration, which on certain issues could put her at a disadvantage.

One of these issues is the Israeli genocide in Gaza. Let us remember that one reason Biden was initially seen to be vulnerable was the Arab and Muslim American-led “uncommitted vote” campaign during the Democratic primaries earlier this year. A significant percentage of Democrats voted uncommitted to signal their rejection of Biden’s unconditional support for Israel’s Gaza genocide.

The results in key swing states particularly worried the Biden campaign. In Michigan and Wisconsin, for example, 101,000 and 47,800, respectively, voted uncommitted. Biden had won both states by margins as small as 154,000 and 20,600 in 2020.

In the latest polls, Harris is trailing Trump by 2 to 10 percent in swing states like Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and Pennsylvania; in Michigan, she is one percentage point behind and in Wisconsin they both poll at 47 percent. In other words, the Arab and Muslim American communities, supported by their many progressive allies, could play a defining role in determining small-margin wins in these states. They may prove key for her victory, if she lags behind Trump in other swing states like Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina or Georgia.

Members of the “Abandon Biden” and “uncommitted” movements have threatened to abandon Harris if she continues Biden’s pro-war policy. The “uncommitted” movement has expanded into a growing coalition that includes other traditional Democratic Party voters, like labour activists, progressive Jews, Black people and Hispanics, and others who support social justice issues. On July 23, for example, seven labour unions representing millions of American workers asked Biden in a joint letter to halt military aid to Israel.

It is important to point out that opposition to the Biden administration’s policies on Palestine and Israel goes beyond these interest groups. Americans’ backing for Israel’s war is currently at 42 percent; among Democrats it stands at 23 percent. In other words, the vast majority of Harris’s Democratic base does not support Israel’s actions, which the Biden administration has wholeheartedly endorsed.I asked Huwaida Arraf, a Palestinian-American Michigan-based lawyer, human rights activist, and an “uncommitted” alternate delegate to the Democratic National Convention, whether and how her colleagues expect Harris to respond to their demands. She replied: “To get our votes, the Democratic Party must fundamentally change course on Gaza specifically, and on Palestine in general. It cannot keep mistreating us, enabling and funding a genocide of our people, then expecting our votes by warning us that the alternative will be worse. Harris is part of an administration that is complicit in genocide and has done nothing to stop it. While she is seen as slightly better than Biden, this is a very low bar, and will not be enough to get our votes. To have a chance, Harris must distance herself from Biden’s policies in a clear and tangible way that goes beyond words. We will no longer accept crumbs.”

This sentiment is widespread among uncommitted members, who have closely followed Harris’s statements on Gaza. The vice president did not attend Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s congressional address on July 24, but she did meet him the following day.

Her comments after their meeting offered possible hints about her position on Gaza. She called for a ceasefire, a two-state solution, and a stop to the mass suffering of Palestinian civilians, referring to Palestinian women and children in a humanised way that is rarely heard in Washington.

Seasoned Middle East analyst and justice advocate Adam Shapiro, a Brooklyn native currently based in Michigan, told me, “Harris has to be  aware the Israeli genocide in Gaza caused the drop in support for Biden, and we have to see if she does anything about that. Her contrast with Biden is often striking in her style and words, but she has spoken well of reducing Palestinian suffering while also supporting the Biden war policy. Skipping the Netanyahu speech is more impressive than her words of concern. Now she must show if she can change her position by the time of the November election in a meaningful way.”

The Democratic National Convention may give Harris the platform to make clear her position on Israel and its war on Gaza. As the Democratic presidential candidate, she would have more influence than she does now as vice president. To what extent she is willing to distance herself from Biden’s staunch support for Israel’s war may determine how much backing she gains from pro-Palestinian progressive Democrats.

“The bare minimum [Harris must do] is to declare support for an arms embargo on Israel before the November vote,” Arraf said. A Harris commitment to respecting international law is another area activists are watching, including a commitment to applying relevant US laws on arms transfers that are used in genocide or other human rights abuses. Others say that there can be changes in the party platform overall, announced at the convention in August.

The 2024 presidential election was always expected to be one of the most consequential presidential votes in modern American history, given the expanding powers of the far right and the fears of Democrats who fret for their democracy. This is now shaping up as an even more historic event not only because it could put a woman of colour in charge of the White House for the first time in US history, but also because it could produce a significant shift in the Democratic Party’s position on Israel-Palestine.