Can Europe guarantee Ukraine’s security without the US?

Huddling in London over the weekend, European leaders declared that they would work to pull together a plan to end the war in Ukraine, but with security guarantees for the country that has been the victim of a full-scale Russian invasion since February 2022.

The meeting in the United Kingdom followed close on the heels of a disastrous visit to the White House by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, during which he was publicly berated by United States President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance for resisting their plans for an unconditional peace plan with Russia.

Trump has made it clear that the US will not provide security guarantees for Ukraine, urging Europe’s military forces to take charge instead.

In meetings with Trump in Washington, DC last week, French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer both indicated a willingness to send troops to Ukraine as peacekeepers if a deal to end Russia’s war is reached.

But can Europe meaningfully provide a security cover to Ukraine, without the US backing it? What are Europe’s true security capabilities? How dependent is the region on US support? And what threat does Russia pose?

What role does the US play in European security?

The US has been central to European security since the end of World War II, when it helped create the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and deployed hundreds of thousands of soldiers to Europe to challenge Soviet influence. It has maintained this security leadership ever since, while also expanding its global superpower status.

As of July 2024, the US had about 65,000 active-duty soldiers permanently stationed across Europe, along with extensive weaponry, defence systems and other assets vital to NATO, according to the US government’s Defense Manpower Data Center.

This includes six pre-positioned weapons stockpiles in Europe, equipped with tanks and armoured vehicles, eight air squadrons, four navy destroyers and an estimated 100 nuclear bombs. Additionally, the US has some 10,000 soldiers on rotational deployment in Poland – a key part of NATO’s eastern flank with Russia.At the same time, the US has provided the majority of direct military aid to Ukraine since Russia invaded it in 2022, sending approximately $65bn, according to the US Department of State. When accounting for other types of assistance, the US had allocated approximately $183bn to the Ukraine response as of September 30, 2024, according to Ukraine Oversight, a website created by the US government to record aid sent to Ukraine. The European Union, for its part, has sent a total of $141bn in aid to Ukraine, including $51bn in military assistance, according to the European Commission.

However, Trump has said it is now time for the US to step back militarily from Europe and wants its allies in the continent to do more heavy lifting.

“Stark strategic realities prevent the United States of America from being primarily focused on the security of Europe,” declared Trump’s Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth at a meeting of NATO allies on February 12. “European allies must lead from the front.”