As early results come in, could Pakistan election spring a surprise?

When I stepped out on a cool Thursday morning to cover Pakistan’s 12th general election, there was an air of inevitability about the whole exercise.

Most respectable analysts had already expressed predictions that the ground was set for the return of three-time former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to power.

Even if it was plain as daylight that the path had been paved by Pakistan’s military establishment that had once helped Sharif’s political rival Imran Khan rise to power at Sharif’s expense. Even if that same establishment had not once, but twice, been Sharif’s tormentor — first when he was removed as PM in a 1999 coup by Pervez Musharraf, and then when he was forced out of office in 2017 and subsequently sentenced in corruption cases.

The tables appeared to have turned, with relations between Khan and the military souring, and the cases against Sharif being dropped.

More than 24 hours after I started visiting polling stations and talking to voters, one thing has become clear to me: The outcome of this election is anything but clear. Whatever the eventual results, this election has been closer than analysts had predicted on poll eve.

The early results bear that out. Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party has been denied the use of its election symbol, the cricket bat. The charismatic Khan, former cricket captain and philanthropist, was sentenced on multiple counts days before the election. He has been in jail since last August.

Still, as of 11:30am local time (06:30 GMT) on Friday, the PTI was running neck and neck with Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PMLN), even though candidates from Khan’s party were forced to contest as independents. Candidates affiliated with Khan’s PTI had won nine seats, while the PMLN had won 10, with the third major contender, the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), had won six.

After what I saw and heard on Thursday, I’m not entirely surprised.

It all started with my phone. Despite all advance warnings by the government and a hunch I had, it was still a bit of a shock when I found out that mobile internet connectivity was switched off. Security concerns were the official reason, but clearly, those in power were concerned that the script they had planned needed tech interventions.

My first stop was at Lahore’s upscale locality of Model Town, also the area where Nawaz Sharif’s younger brother Shehbaz Sharif, himself a former prime minister, was expected to vote.

Saadia, a 29-year-old doctor was the first in line on the female side. Wearing a face mask, she told me that despite suffering from a bout of flu, it was very important for her to come out and vote.

“It is our national duty and a responsibility,” she said in a determined manner. “If we don’t do our bit, we won’t have a right to complain.”

The group of women behind also seemed enthusiastic and eager to vote, but as one of them had just started to express her support for Khan and the PTI, a male member of her family intervened.

“We don’t want to talk to any media. We don’t trust who you are,” he told me brusquely, and instructed the women of his family to avoid talking as well.