FIFA World Cup: Which quarterfinal team has best chance to win the trophy?

Ninety-six games played, just eight more to come. FIFA World Cup 2026 has lived up to its billing as the biggest of all time, and may yet end up in the conversation as the best tournament too.

We’re down to the final eight nations with hopes of winning the trophy – four of them for the first time – while the other four are aiming to write a new glorious chapter in their football history.
But now the last 16 and the first rest day of the competition are out of the way, who has the best chance of being crowned champions in New York/New Jersey on July 19?8. Switzerland
It feels like a place in the last eight for the first time in 72 years is already a win for the Swiss, and few expect them to make further history.

Murat Yakin’s men benefitted from a kind draw which pitted them against the cohosts Canada, Bosnia and Qatar, and they only managed to ensure top of that group by withstanding late pressure from the Maple Leafs after being held to a 1-1 draw by Qatar in their opening match.

They overcame Algeria without too much alarm in the last 32 but needed penalties to eliminate an off-form Colombia in the last round, with the Swiss failing to register a shot on target after the 32nd minute of normal time.

The potential loss of speedy 20-year-old Johan Manzambi, one of the tournament’s breakout stars, to a knee injury in training will diminish their hopes against Argentina. Even if they did manage to shock the world and send Messi and co home early, the chances are they would struggle in a semifinal against either England or Norway, let alone a final against France or Spain.
7. Morocco
When Morocco flew out of the blocks in the opening 45 minutes of their Group C game with Brazil, the world thought this was a new and improved version of the Atlas Lions which had made a shock run to the last-four in Qatar, however they failed to put that game to bed, despite their dominance.
A 1-0 win over Scotland followed in their second match, before twice having to come from behind to see-off Haiti in the final group match.

They then played the Netherlands in the last 32, and although they recovered from falling behind in the final 20 minutes to force extra-time with a goal in stoppage-time, they needed penalties to progress from another game they might well have won.

In the last 16, they played their best match of the tournament against Canada. The North Africans were clinical, scoring three second-half goals to set up a France quarterfinal meeting.

They will need all that and more to avoid a one-sided defeat against France, who knocked them out in the last four in 2022.

While only a handful of the XI beaten four years ago are likely to feature, the loss of leading scorer Ismael Saibari will also not help their cause against a nation where six of their squad were born. Indeed teenage midfielder Ayyoub Bouaddi captained the French under-21 side in a European Championship qualifier just 101 days before he is set to face Les Bleus in Boston, but switched allegiance on the eve of the tournament.

If Morocco are able to rediscover their form and spring an almighty surprise to see-off their old foes then all bets are off. They already know what it takes to beat Spain or Belgium, they did so in Qatar, while a potential final would not only make history as the first African and Arab country to take part in the showpiece, it might provide the wave of momentum which takes them all the way to the trophy itself.

6. Belgium
Belgium would have been the No 8 ranking a few days ago, but they had a reshuffle against the US and looked far better than they did in any of the group stage games or the first 75-minutes or so against Senegal in the Round of 32.
5. Norway
We’re officially in uncharted territory for these dark horses. They came into the tournament never having won a knockout match at the World Cup – now they are eyeing three in a row.

Ruthlessly efficient is one way to describe Norway’s passage to the last eight. They arrived at their first World Cup in 28 years with a plan and they have they stuck to it.

After an opening group game victory against Iraq, the pivotal match of their summer was always likely to be the second group game against Senegal. They won it 3-2. It ensured their passage to the knockout stages as runners-up and allowed Stale Solbakken to rest 10 players for the group finale against France.

Much was made of the decision not to try and match Les Bleus for a potential top-spot in Group I, but despite the 4-1 defeat, it still looks like a great call.

Norway left it late before seeing-off Ivory Coast in the Round of 32. Against Brazil in the last 16, they also left it late but finished strong with two goals in the final 11 minutes from Erling Haaland.

The 25-year-old has scored seven goals from just 18 shots across four games in this tournament, though the game management of midfielder Martin Odegaard, particularly against Brazil, has gone under the radar. The Arsenal player has three assists already, the same as left-sided super-sub Andreas Schjelderup, while corner-taker Patrick Berg has two more.

Quarterfinal opponents England will have to figure out a way to deal with crosses into the middle better than they have done in their previous games and their management of Odegaard, as well as their own fitness levels, could be key to determining which European nation goes through to the semifinals to face, in all likelihood, Argentina.

However, for all their attacking efficiency, Norway have kept just one clean sheet in their past dozen matches and, were it not for the heroics of keeper Orjan Nyland, they might already be on their way home.

Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham will fancy their chances against defenders Kristoffer Ajer and Torbjorn Heggem and we could be in for another ding-dong battle with goals galore in sapping conditions, rather than any cagey defensive battles.
4. Argentina
Algeria, Austria, Jordan, Cape Verde, Egypt, Switzerland. It’s not a bad run for a defending champion, is it?

However it has been far from plain sailing for the Albiceleste, who have had to lean heavily on the 39-year-old legs and ageless football brain of Lionel Messi just to make it to the quarterfinals.

Inspired by the attacking play of Leandro Trossard, coach Rudi Garcia might have stumbled across a formula which works, leaving Kevin De Bruyne on the sidelines for the first time in 38 Belgium games and having Jeremy Doku and Romelo Lukaku as other potential game-changers off the bench.

The Red Devils certainly began slowly and only a 5-1 thumping of New Zealand in their final group game saw them through as group winners on goals scored, after failing to beat Egypt or Iran.

They made even harder work against Senegal, who should have been out of sight long before the comeback, when Lukaku and Youri Tielemans capitalised on some slack defending to score in the final four minutes of normal time before the latter dispatched a penalty five minutes from the end of extra-time to complete the unlikely turnaround.