Will Iran build a nuclear bomb while Trump is in power in the US?

Donald Trump’s second term as president of the United States promises Iran a rocky road that could lead to different outcomes when it comes to its relations with the West, analysts say.

US leaders, along with Israelis, have been openly discussing military strikes on top Iranian nuclear facilities and critical infrastructure like power plants and oil and petrochemical facilities.

Iran’s leaders, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, remain defiant, and its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have held large-scale military exercises, predominantly focusing on defending sensitive sites.

A shift, but to where?

For more than two decades, Iran’s relationship with the West has largely been defined by developments in the country’s nuclear programme and efforts to stop it from getting a bomb. Tehran has consistently maintained that it does not seek a weapon of mass destruction.

Recently, top political and military authorities in Iran have been discussing the possibility of shifting Tehran’s officially stated policy of not pursuing a nuclear weapon amid rising security threats.

Amid dire economic conditions, the government of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, which is expected to send its diplomats to Europe later this month for talks with the E3 – France, Germany and the United Kingdom – looks like it wants to further engage with the West.

The overall framework being discussed appears similar to the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), Iran’s nuclear deal with world powers in 2015 – lifting some economic pressure on Iran in exchange for curbs on its nuclear programme.