What’s behind Ukraine’s surprise incursion into Russia’s Kursk region?

Ukrainian soldiers have entered western Russia in a move that has bewildered Moscow, successfully tested its weak border defences and may deal a blow to its natural gas supplies to Europe.

Kyiv dispatched hundreds of servicemen backed by armoured vehicles, artillery and drones to the Kursk region on Tuesday, according to Russian officials, Ukrainian servicemen and media reports.

The raid follows several incursions by Russian nationals fighting for Ukraine who briefly raided Kursk and neighbouring Belgorod in 2023 and heavy Ukrainian shelling of Belgorod this year.

On Tuesday morning, Ukrainian forces fought through the border and approached Sudzha, a sleepy town of 5,000 people whose central square is still dominated by a statue of Soviet Union founder Vladimir Lenin.

But Sudzha is important as the location of the only pumping station that delivers Russian natural gas to Europe via Ukraine.

Despite the war, Ukraine still rents its Soviet-era gas pipeline to Russia’s gas monopoly, Gazprom, for $2bn a year.

The transit deal expires in January – if the raid doesn’t stop it now.

Because of the attack, “there is a risk of a pause of [Russia’s] natural gas supplies to the European Union via our transit system,” Kyiv-based analyst Aleksey Kushch told Al Jazeera.

The Kursk nuclear power station, one of the world’s oldest, is located in the town of Kurchatov, about 70km (40 miles) east of Sudzha.

Ukrainian drones have been spotted in Kurchatov, and some analysts said Kyiv wants to destabilise the Russian energy system the way Moscow has targeted Ukrainian power stations and its energy grid.“The main thing [about the attack] is energy supplies. The more destabilised they are, the more destabilised the Russian economy is,” Kyiv-based analyst Taras Zahorodniy said in televised remarks.

By Wednesday afternoon, Ukrainians surrounded Sudzha, seized three villages and were spotted near 10 more, Russian officials and media reported.

“In the past 24 hours, our region has been heroically countering the attacks of Ukrainian Nazis,” Kursk acting Governor Aleksey Smirnov wrote on Telegram on Wednesday, repeating the Kremlin’s narratives about the “Nazi junta” in Kyiv.

At least three civilians – two drivers and a woman – have been killed, and 24 have been wounded, including six children, according to Smirnov and health officials.

The governor urged locals to donate blood for the wounded and said “the situation is controllable”.

But even the dry, legalese tone of the Kremlin’s statements cannot hide the gravity of the situation.

President Vladimir Putin called the raid a “full-scale provocation by the Kyiv regime” and accused Ukrainian servicemen of indiscriminately firing at residential areas and civilians.

The Ministry of Defence in Moscow claimed on Wednesday that Ukrainians lost up to 260 servicemen, seven tanks and 42 armoured vehicles, two air defence vehicles and a radio jamming station.

“The operation to annihilate Ukrainian military formations is ongoing,” it said.

‘On a tactical level, Russian resources are being distracted’

Officials in Kyiv have not commented on the attack, but Ukrainian reports claim heavy losses on the Russian side.

Ukrainian forces killed a group of Russian servicemen holed up in a walled Orthodox monastery, shot down a Ka-52 helicopter and destroyed two tanks, Deep State, a Ukrainian Telegram channel known for verified reports, wrote on Wednesday.

At least three Russian servicemen have been taken to Ukraine. They said they were conscripts who underwent brief, incomplete training before being dispatched to the border.

Their commanders “abandoned us, don’t give a damn about us, left us to die”, one of the captured conscripts who identified himself as Daniil Kolesnikov and wore a torn black T-shirt said in a video posted by the Krymsky Veter Telegram channel, a Ukrainian feed.

Ukrainian sources said the attack was a “pre-emptive strike” ahead of a planned Russian invasion of the northern Ukrainian region of Sumy, which borders Kursk.

“It’s not about a public relations move or about the extra resources that we have,” Ukrainian serviceman Kyryllo Sazonov wrote on Telegram.

Residents fled Sudzha in droves or are holed up in basements to shelter from Ukrainian artillery and drone strikes, according to the Russian Dva Mayora Telegram channel.

It described the evacuation of civilians as “disorganised” and said some had to leave on foot across fields filled with nettles.

By Tuesday night, “it became obvious that the enemy forces can’t be kicked out of the areas they had occupied” because Ukrainians brought along the Buk air defence systems that prevent strikes by Russian fighter jets and drones, Dva Mayora said.

The move is this year’s most unexpected military development, but its importance is far from strategic, analysts said.

“Results will show whether this is good news or bad news,” said Lieutenant General Ihor Romanenko, former deputy head of the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

“On a tactical level, Russian resources, reserves will be distracted, are being distracted already,” he told Al Jazeera.

Another observer said that despite heavy losses, the attack may pave the way for a larger strike in the forested, swampy region.

“So far, the reconnaissance raid is somewhat lucky,” Nikolay Mitrokhin, a researcher with Germany’s Bremen University, told Al Jazeera.

“We’ll see what would happen next. But early August is the most convenient time to advance on the swampy, heavily impassable terrain,” he said.

But to some Ukrainian servicemen, the attack is nothing but a “distraction” designed to cheer up the public.

“Things in the east are pretty bad, and this raid will for a while blind everyone at home – ‘Look, how ballsy we are. We’re kicking a** on their turf,’” Taras, a serviceman strolling in central Kyiv while on a break from the eastern front lines, told Al Jazeera.

He withheld his last name and location of his unit in accordance with military regulations.

Meanwhile, Russian troops slowly advanced in the eastern region of Donetsk.

This month, they entered New York, a town founded and named by German Mennonites in the 19th century.

Russian troops raised a banner over the town’s school, but Ukrainian servicemen removed it a day later, a former schoolteacher and community leader said.

“Above my school, my office, Rashists raised their towel yesterday,” Nadiya Gordiyuk told Al Jazeera, using the wartime slur combining “Russian” and “fascist”. “Today, it’s gone.”

By Wednesday afternoon, Ukrainians surrounded Sudzha, seized three villages and were spotted near 10 more, Russian officials and media reported.

“In the past 24 hours, our region has been heroically countering the attacks of Ukrainian Nazis,” Kursk acting Governor Aleksey Smirnov wrote on Telegram on Wednesday, repeating the Kremlin’s narratives about the “Nazi junta” in Kyiv.

At least three civilians – two drivers and a woman – have been killed, and 24 have been wounded, including six children, according to Smirnov and health officials.

The governor urged locals to donate blood for the wounded and said “the situation is controllable”.

But even the dry, legalese tone of the Kremlin’s statements cannot hide the gravity of the situation.