What to know about the looming deadline on North American free trade

The US, Canada and Mexico are staring down a 1 July deadline to decide the future of a long-standing North American free trade pact. All signs point to them blowing past that date without a clear resolution.

On Wednesday, trade representatives from all three countries will meet formally for the first time since a review of the USMCA pact began. Canada and Mexico have both said they want the deal renewed, while the US has yet to outline its position.

Most recently, President Donald Trump said he sees the deal “expiring immediately”, arguing that the US would be better off without it.

So where does that leave the USMCA, a trade deal that encompasses some 510 million people? And what happens if an agreement is not reached by the deadline?

Here’s what we know.

Expect the 1 July deadline to come and go

One thing is certain: Canada, the US and Mexico all don’t expect a decision to be made on Wednesday.

A review of the USMCA pact was always scheduled for this summer as part of the original agreement, but Trump’s tariffs – and Canada’s response to them – have complicated negotiations.

Canadian officials are anticipating that talks with the US will continue past 1 July, and it’s unclear for how long. Mexico and the US have announced another round of formal bilateral talks for later in the month.

In a statement to the BBC, the office of Canada-US trade minister Dominic LeBlanc said Wednesday’s meeting will be “an opportunity to build on the positive, constructive bilateral discussions he has had with both countries in recent weeks”.

“He is looking forward to continuing the work of supporting Canadian workers, farmers and businesses, on July 1 and beyond.”

The current deal was negotiated during Trump’s first term. It replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement, which had been in place since the 1990s.

It underpins nearly $1.6tn (£1.2tn) in annual trade between the three countries, has helped integrate key sectors such as North America’s auto industry, and supports millions of jobs across the region.

It has also offered Canada and Mexico a much-needed shield from the bulk of US tariffs thanks to a USMCA exemption by the Trump administration on most goods.

The pact has broad support in the US, with a late 2025 Ipsos survey by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs suggesting 75% of Americans believe it has been beneficial to the economy.

What is stopping a deal from being reached?

Since the review began earlier this year, the US has been engaged in talks with Canada and Mexico separately to address a list of trade irritants.

There has been a perception that Canada is lagging behind, as Mexico and the US have announced multiple rounds of formal talks, while Canada and the US have not.

Members of a Canada-US trade advisory committee assembled by Prime Minister Mark Carney, however, said the list of US demands for Canada is “much shorter” than Mexico’s and that talks are actively taking place.

Some US demands include greater access for American producers to Canada’s dairy market, the removal of Canadian taxes on major US streaming companies, and – more recently – the reversal of provincial boycotts on US alcohol imposed in response to Trump’s tariffs.

The US is also discussing tighter rules of origin for North American-made vehicles with Mexico, fuelling speculation that it could make similar demands of Canada given the region’s highly integrated auto sector.

Canada has presented “a number of specific proposals” to address US irritants, LeBlanc and Canada’s chief negotiator Janice Charette said earlier this month.