What could Trump’s return to the White House mean for Latin America?

In the wake of the United States presidential election, international leaders have been scrambling to prepare for Donald Trump’s return to the world stage, as the divisive figure takes office for a second term.

But in Latin America, the stakes are particularly high. Trump has already signalled he may lean on Latin American countries to stem the flow of cross-border migration and leverage the region’s economic ties to accomplish the goals of his “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) platform, which calls for stringent border security and improving the domestic economy.

Some signs of tension have already begun to emerge, particularly over a threat by Trump to impose 25-percent tariffs on Mexico.

That may be a negotiating tactic, but from bolstering support for right-wing allies to taking a harsher stance on immigration, some analysts expect a second Trump term will generally be characterised by greater willingness to apply pressure to advance US priorities in the region.

After the election, Guatemalan special prosecutor Rafael Curruchiche – an opponent of the country’s progressive President Bernardo Arevalo – posted a photo of himself on social media in a swimming pool wearing a “Trump 2024” hat and flashing a thumbs-up next to a bottle of Don Julio tequila.

“[There are] 61 days until Donald Trump takes office in the US,” he said in a separate post, seemingly directed at his political rivals. “How nervous! If only they knew what was coming.”

Who “they” are is not explicitly spelled out, but Curruchiche has been a prominent figure in the effort to roll back Arevalo’s 2023 election win.

Curruchiche was also sanctioned by the outgoing administration of Democratic US President Joe Biden for allegedly obstructing anti-corruption efforts.