US elections: What a Trump win could mean for the Middle East, regional conflicts
American voters have cast their ballots and with Donald Trump emerging triumphant and set for a remarkable return to the White House four years after his departure, regional experts say the Republican’s victory could shape the outcome of conflicts in the Middle East.
Diplomatic policy overseen by former President and now president-elect Trump could also dramatically reshape US policy in the region, including its stance on Iran and regional peace agreements, foreign policy advisors have said.
A return of Trump would likely have some impact on Israel’s war on Hamas in Gaza and on Hezbollah in Lebanon, Sanam Vakil, director of the MENA program at think tank Chatham House, told Al Arabiya English. With the US being Israel’s top ally and military backer, the election came at a critical time for the Middle East.
“I think that the Trump administration – and the President – in particular, is going to look to close down the active military campaigns underway in Gaza and Lebanon,” she said. “But that doesn’t necessarily mean that peace is on the horizon.” Vakil said.
“I think what we are moving into is, instead, more of a long-level conflict where Israel is till given license to address its security concerns and degrade the Axis of Resistance, yeah, but without the contours of a political settlement or negotiation on the horizon.”
Vakil said nations in the Middle East—both allies and adversaries – will now be paying close attention, eager to see how the results may shape policy in their region.
Key questions loom about whether the incoming administration will change course on critical matters of conflict and diplomacy, and whether it will work with a cooperative or confrontational Congress.
Vakil said questions persist about how Trump will handle ongoing instability in the region, even as he maintains that the October 7 attacks by Hamas “would never have happened” under his administration.
“I think there are (a few) areas which (may affect the Middle East). First of all is Trump pursuing an end to the military campaign in Gaza. But that doesn’t necessary translate to a political horizon of Palestine statehood per se…but an end to the military campaign and end the active conflicts.”
Another likelihood is “maximum pressure Iran 2.0” on Iran, said Vakil, adding “but that doesn’t necessarily mean an agreement or regime change, but an effort at constraining and containing Iran’s maneuverability in the Middle East.”
During his first term, Trump reinstated sanctions on Iran after withdrawing from a 2015 nuclear agreement with world powers, which had limited Tehran’s nuclear activities in exchange for economic incentives.
These renewed sanctions in 2018 severely impacted Iran’s oil exports, reducing government revenue and compelling the country to adopt unpopular measures, such as raising taxes and running large budget deficits, keeping annual inflation around 40 percent.
Thirdly, said Vakil, Trump is likely to “double down” on the Abhram Accords, a series of agreements normalizing ties between Israel and various Arab nations.
In 2017, Trump formally recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and relocated the US Embassy there. Two years later, he acknowledged Israel’s control over the Golan Heights, Syrian territory occupied by Israel during the Six-Day War in 1967 and still claimed by Syria. Trump also facilitated the Abraham Accords. His 2020 peace proposal aimed to grant Israel sovereignty over extensive areas of the Palestinian territories.
Trump has recently touted those Abraham Accords, suggesting he would push for further normalization agreements between Israel and Arab states.
Highlighting the significance of the peace agreement, Trump told Al Arabiya’s Washington Bureau Chief Nadia Bilbassy-Charters last month he would work to expand them if he becomes president.
“If I win, that will be an absolute [to just] get everybody in. It’s peace in the Middle East. We need it, and it’s very important, and it will happen.”
Vakil says Trump pushing for a broadened Abraham Accords is likely to be one of the top items on his agenda.
This will gain ‘further legs’ under a Trump administration, said Vakil, adding “…because there are not too many other ideas, and the administration that will come in will see the Accords as a really good framework to broaden, share and transfer management of Middle East conflict to Middle East states.”
Mairav Zonszein, an Israel expert at the International Crisis Group think tank, said it remains to be seen how Trump will deal with the conflict in the region.
“We should take it with a grain of salt. Really, it’s a bit early to tell, and we’ll just have to see how things play out,” she said.
“We should take it with a grain of salt. Really, it’s a bit early to tell, and we’ll just have to see how things play out,” she said, while Ghassan Khatib, a Palestinian political analyst and former minister and diplomat, was less hopeful, saying: “I think that Trump will probably continue to support Netanyahu in his fights in Gaza and in Lebanon and probably in Syria without allowing him to go into a full-fledged war against Iran.”
Trump’s Middle East views
Trump’s Middle East policy has largely centered on strong alliances with Israel, alongside a confrontational approach toward Iran. He highlights his efforts to broker peace deals and to counter extremist terrorist groups like ISIS.
Calling Israel a “cherished ally,” Trump broke from past bipartisan support for a two-state solution, indicating no interest in establishing a Palestinian state. After the 2023 conflict between Israel and Hamas, he reiterated his commitment to supporting Israel.
Trump maintained close relations with Saudi Arabia, authorizing significant arms sales and showing strong support for Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
On Iran, Trump pursued a policy of isolation, calling it “the leading state sponsor of terrorism.” In 2018, he exited the Iran nuclear deal, reimposing sanctions, and in 2020 ordered the killing of top Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani. Near the end of his term, he designated Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis as a foreign terrorist organization, a decision later reversed by Biden but reinstated in 2024 amid renewed Houthi attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea during the Israel-Hamas conflict.
Trump also claims credit for the US-led defeat of ISIS in Iraq, while advocating for troop withdrawals in Iraq and Syria. He has suggested leaving some US forces in Syria to maintain access to oil resources.
Vakil said the reaction to a Trump win in the Middle East will be varied.
“American traditional partners in the Gulf – let’s just say the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Israel – see opportunities in a Trump presidency, but I think you know, at the same time, they’re concerned that Trump and his administration won’t really deliver on some of the key areas where stability and economic prosperity, need to come together. So, I think there are risks as well as opportunities for these three countries.”
Israel reaction
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday congratulated Trump calling it “history’s greatest comeback” and a new beginning in the US–Israel alliance.
“Congratulations on history’s greatest comeback! Your historic return to the White House offers a new beginning for America and a powerful recommitment to the great alliance between Israel and America. This is a huge victory!” Netanyahu said in a statement issued by his office.
He was one of the world’s first leaders to congratulate Trump even before US media said the Republican candidate had won Tuesday’s US presidential election.
Other Israeli officials also congratulated Trump, including top diplomat Israel Katz, who was named defense minister on Tuesday. “Congratulations to President-elect @realDonald Trump on his historic victory. Together, we’ll strengthen the US–Israel alliance, bring back the hostages, and stand firm to defeat the axis of evil led by Iran,” Katz said on X.
Victory for Trump
On Wednesday, Republican Donald Trump claimed victory in the 2024 presidential contest after Fox News projected that he had defeated the candidate of the Democrats and incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris.
“America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate,” he said early on Wednesday to a roaring crowd of supporters at the Palm Beach County Convention Center.
Trump went into Election Day with a 50-50 chance of reclaiming the White House, a remarkable turnaround from Jan. 6, 2021, when many pundits pronounced his political career to be over. That day, a mob of his supporters stormed Congress in a violent attempt to overturn the results of the 2020 election claiming that the elections had been rigged.
Trump, 78, recaptured the White House on Wednesday by securing more than the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the presidency, Edison Research projected.
