Swedish Military Intelligence says threat from Russia has increased

Russia poses a clear military threat in Sweden’s immediate area but its forces are largely tied up in the war in Ukraine, the Swedish Military Intelligence and Security Service (MUST) said on Monday.

“The European Security Order as we know it has ceased to exist…and with that the risks for Swedish security have also increased,” Lena Hallin, head of MUST, told a news conference.

Hallin also said she expected Russia to strengthen its military capability in Sweden’s immediate area when it was possible, in response to Sweden and Finland applying for NATO membership.

She said that MUST judged that Russia wants to avoid current tensions escalating into an armed conflict with NATO.

“But there is considerable uncertainty, mainly relating to the Russian leaderships’ willingness to take high risks,” she said, adding that the high level of tension raised risks that accident or misjudgment could lead to conflict.