Russia intensifies assaults on Ukraine ahead of Trump’s inauguration
Mounting evidence suggests that Russia ramped up its assaults on Ukraine leading up to the United States election on November 5, in a possible effort to strengthen isolationists supporting Donald Trump.
It also appears to be doubling down on that strategy ahead of Trump’s inauguration on January 20.
“November was the fifth straight month that Russian Forces have suffered an increase in monthly total losses,” said Britain’s Ministry of Defence, as Ukraine estimated that 45,680 Russian soldiers were killed and wounded during the month.
The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has estimated Russian losses for September at 38,130 and for October at 41,980.
Those climbing casualty figures are due to the fact that Russian ground assaults have steadily mounted despite the pain.
The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, estimated that Russian daily gains on Ukrainian turf averaged 22sq km (8.5 square miles) in October and 27sq km (10.4 square miles) in November.
“Russian forces have thus suffered an estimated 125,800 casualties during a period of intensified offensive operations in September, October, and November 2024 in exchange for 2,356 square kilometres of gains,” said the ISW.
These losses were well beyond what US officials believed Russia could sustain. They put its recruitment capacity at 25,000-30,000 a month.
“Russian forces have thus suffered an estimated 125,800 casualties during a period of intensified offensive operations in September, October, and November 2024 in exchange for 2,356 square kilometres of gains,” said the ISW.
These losses were well beyond what US officials believed Russia could sustain. They put its recruitment capacity at 25,000-30,000 a month.
Ukraine has recorded a similar crescendo in airborne attacks.
“From September to November 2024, the enemy used over 6,000 UAVs and missiles in air strikes on Ukraine,” said Victoria Vdovychenko, a programme director at the Centre for Defence Strategies, a Ukrainian think tank, and a fellow at Cambridge University’s Centre for Geopolitics.
“This is three times the number used from June to August 2024 and four times the number used from September to November 2023,” she told Al Jazeera.
Before and after the election, Vdovychenko believes Russia also upped its information campaigns to manipulate US public opinion.
North Korean troops entered active combat in the Russian region of Kursk on the day of the election, showing that Russia had access to fresh manpower.
When US President Joe Biden reacted to Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris’s defeat by authorising US weapons to strike deep inside Russia, Russian President Vladimir Putin fired the Oreshnik ballistic missile into Ukraine in apparent retaliation.
But Russian chief of staff Valery Gerasimov recently told his US counterpart the launch “had been planned long before the Biden administration agreed to allow Ukraine to use American ATACMS to strike deeper into Russia”, reported The New York Times, quoting US officials.
Putin was nonetheless able to create the impression that it was the US that was provoking Russia and prolonging the war.
