Le Pen’s conviction in France: Career-ending or fuel for a new far right?

On Sunday, an opinion poll predicted that Marine Le Pen, the longtime leader of the French far right, would secure up to 37 percent of votes in the 2027 presidential election, more than 22 points higher than in 2022 and 10 points ahead of any other candidate.

The “page has definitely turned”, said Frederic Dabi, the head of pollster Ifop Opinion.He saw the poll as confirmation that Le Pen’s rebrand had worked. For years, she has sought to normalise the hard right and distance it from the rule of Jean Marie Le Pen, her late father who founded the National Front, a party that lived on the political fringes.

But on Monday, Marine Le Pen and her updated National Rally party were dealt a major blow.

She was convicted of embezzling European Union funds, disqualifying her from running for public office for five years – effective immediately.

Although Le Pen plans to appeal, the verdict prevents her from participating in France’s 2027 presidential election.

‘We’re very surprised in France’
The criminal court ruling in Paris has shocked France.While Le Pen’s supporters are decrying the case as a political assault, her opponents are relieved to see the justice system’s independence prevail.

“We’re very surprised in France because it’s very rare for a politician to actually be convicted. It’s happened, but it’s still quite rare, especially at this level of notoriety,” Baptiste Colin, a 29-year-old theatre producer from Lyon, told Al Jazeera.

In recent years, voting for National Rally, or RN by its French initials, has become more typical across France, and Le Pen could appeal to voters by spinning the trial in her favour.