JPMorgan’s Gori sees 2026 deal rebound, backs Middle East’s structural growth

Filippo Gori, Head of Global Banking at JPMorgan, said 2026 is expected to build on the momentum seen in the final quarter of 2025, with a strong return of major global deals, particularly in mergers and acquisitions and initial public offerings.

Gori said he expects this year to “largely play out” like the last four to five months of 2025, when “things picked up very strongly” and “deals will be at the forefront.”

Gori pointed to a backlog of transactions that have been delayed for an extended period, saying there is “a large backlog of transactions that we have been working on now for months, if not years” that could come to market in 2026. He also said potential regulatory shifts in the United States could support more activity, noting that regulation may “facilitate transactions that otherwise might not have been possible.”

He also addressed the impact of geopolitical developments on financial markets, warning that markets are not adequately pricing in current geopolitical risks, saying, “I think the markets are not properly pricing the geopolitical risks globally,” and cautioning that equity markets are “pricing things to perfection,” leaving them more exposed to shocks.

Turning to energy markets, Gori said developments in Venezuela are unlikely to have an immediate or significant impact on oil prices. “It is too early to say,” he said, adding that an initial assessment was that “the impact was going to be limited,” while stressing the need to monitor how the situation evolves “in the next few weeks and months.”

On the US economy, Gori pointed to continued resilience and stable labor markets, saying the US economy is “still very well,” while interest rates are expected to remain steady in the near term.

“Rates probably will remain stable in the US,” he said, adding, “we think the rates would remain stable in Europe too,” he said.

However, he cautioned that inflation remains above the US Federal Reserve’s target.

“Inflation has not yet gone back down to the 2 percent… target,” he said, adding that inflation is “still lingering around 3 percent,” and warning that risks may not emerge immediately: “Probably doesn’t play out this year, but we could see more in 2027.”

Gori also discussed shifts in global financing trends, including the continued growth of private credit, as well as the expanding role of artificial intelligence in boosting productivity within the banking sector.

On AI, he said JPMorgan currently has “around 400 use cases” where the technology is used daily, aimed at “achieving efficiency” and improving service delivery by processing large quantities of data and reaching conclusions faster.

Regionally, he said the economic transformation underway in Saudi Arabia and across the Middle East represents a long term structural shift rather than a cyclical trend. He added that the Middle East “could be the winner for a variety of different reasons,” including foreign direct investment appeal, location, and natural resources, noting that JPMorgan is “preparing” and “investing in the Middle East” accordingly.