How did Germany’s far-right AfD achieve a historic electoral victory?

The Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) won a historic victory in the eastern German state of Saxony-Anhalt on Sunday.

Classified in 2025 by Germany’s domestic intelligence agency (BfV) as a “confirmed right-wing extremist organization,” the AfD has experienced a meteoric rise since its inception. It has grown from a small euroskeptic party in 2013 into one of the driving forces in German politics, gaining the support of US President Donald Trump and the world’s richest man, Elon Musk, along the way.

The turning point came in 2015, when the party pivoted toward anti-immigration politics. That year, Chancellor Angela Merkel allowed more than one million asylum seekers to enter Germany, many fleeing war in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan. This placed immigration at the top of the political agenda. The AfD capitalized on the issue, developing its positions on immigration and law and order into a broader platform that presented the mass deportation of foreigners as a solution to Germany’s problems.

The AfD has entrenched its support through the strategic use of social media, keeping immigration issues prominent in public and political discourse. The party has built a large sphere of influence online by producing high volumes of content designed to maximize virality. Its deliberately provocative tone sparks strong reactions from supporters and opponents alike, driving digital engagement and expanding its reach.

The advent of AI-generated content has supercharged this effort, allowing the creation of engaging, tailored material that resonates with the party’s audience. This strategy has proved effective in reaching younger voters and mobilizing a broader far-right network. The AfD’s lead candidate in Saxony-Anhalt has a TikTok following of 700,000 in a state of just over two million people. Chancellor Friedrich Merz, by comparison, has 206,000 followers.

This strong social media presence allows the AfD to shape public discourse by keeping immigration at the forefront of political debate. The December 2024 Magdeburg attack, in which a 50-year-old Saudi doctor drove into a Christmas market, injuring more than 200 people, saw an uptick in AfD support and prompted anti-migrant rallies. The attacker, however, was an AfD supporter who had openly voiced anti-Islam views, supported far-right ideology and frequently criticized Germany for insufficient action against the “Islamization of Europe.”

AfD support is also markedly geographical, concentrated in states of the former East Germany. Post-reunification integration introduced lasting regional inequalities, lower relative wages and structural disparities that left many eastern citizens feeling economically and socially marginalized. Studies conducted by the University of Siegen show that persistent structural inequality fosters a pervasive sense of collective relative deprivation and status anxiety. The AfD has successfully weaponized these socioeconomic grievances, channeling perceptions of status loss and deep-seated political distrust into anti-immigrant sentiment that translates into strong electoral support.

Beyond digital campaigning and socioeconomic grievances, political science research demonstrates that the AfD’s structural strength is compounded by a vacuum of local political competition. Studies emphasize that the party routinely achieves its highest vote shares in municipalities where established democratic parties have weak local footprints and fail to actively mobilize voters.

Sunday’s victory is cause for celebration for the far right. However, having fallen short of an absolute majority and remaining constrained by the Brandmauer – the agreement among Germany’s major parties not to cooperate with the AfD – the task of governing will test the party’s mettle in the coming months.