Hezbollah-Israel fighting could derail Lebanon’s progress, warns US intelligence
Increased fighting between Hezbollah and Israel poses a significant threat to Lebanon’s “fragile stability” and the political progress seen after Joseph Aoun’s election as president in January. According to the annual threat assessment by the US intelligence community, a resumption of sustained Israeli operations in Lebanon could trigger a sharp rise in sectarian tensions, weaken Lebanese security forces, and significantly worsen the already dire humanitarian conditions.
Despite suffering setbacks, Hezbollah retains the capacity to target US personnel and interests both regionally and globally, including—in a limited capacity—the United States itself.
The Israeli military’s yearlong campaign in Lebanon devastated Hezbollah’s leadership and severely damaged much of the group’s sophisticated weaponry. Furthermore, the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria has stymied Iran’s efforts to create a so-called Shia crescent stretching across the Middle East. These setbacks have led Iranian leaders to reconsider their regional approach, especially as they grapple with a struggling economy and rising societal discontent.
Iran, which remains Hezbollah’s principal backer, funder, and arms supplier, the US intelligence report notes that Tehran will likely continue to leverage its missile capabilities and an expanded nuclear program to increase its regional influence and maintain regime stability. However, Iran faces mounting regional and domestic challenges, particularly in light of recent exchanges of strikes with Israel, which are testing its ambitions and abilities.
US intelligence anticipates that Iran will persist in its efforts to counter Israel and push the US to withdraw from the region through direct attacks or proxy actions. Despite these provocations, US intel assesses that Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, is not seeking an expanded direct conflict with the US or its allies. However, the report notes that Iran’s growing capabilities in cyber operations present a major threat to US and allied networks and data security.
In the near term, US intelligence assesses that Iran’s ability to recover from losses and reestablish a credible deterrent—especially against Israel— “are dim in the near term.”
Syria’s struggles
The US has distanced itself from Syria’s interim government led by Ahmed al-Sharaa due to his past associations with al-Qaeda. Al-Sharaa, the former head of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a group the US has designated as a terrorist organization, now leads Syria’s interim government.
The fall of the Assad regime has created a power vacuum, allowing groups like ISIS and other extremists to regain ground, according to the threat assessment.
“Even if the HTS–led interim government can bridge divergent objectives, governing Syria will remain a daunting challenge amid the country’s economic problems, humanitarian needs driven in part by millions of internally displaced Syrians, rampant insecurity, as well as ethnic, sectarian, and religious cleavages,” the US intel assessment said.
Recent reports of massacres in northwestern Syria, which killed over 1,000 people, mostly from Alawite and Christian communities, have shocked US officials.
“The leader of HTS claims to be willing to work with Syria’s array of ethnosectarian groups to develop an inclusive governance model. Many of these groups remain skeptical of HTS’s intentions, especially considering the leader’s past al-Qaeda association, suggesting protracted negotiations could devolve into violence,” the report said. It also cited Israeli government officials as being “skeptical of HTS claims and intentions.”
The US presented a list of demands to be met by the Syrian government earlier this month in return for the easing of US sanctions, which were put in place against the Assad regime. Among those demands are for al-Sharaa’s government to remove foreign fighters from posts they were appointed to in Damascus.
“Some remaining [militant] groups refuse to merge into the HTS Ministry of Defense, and ISIS has already signaled opposition to HTS’s call for democracy and is plotting attacks to undermine its governance,” the US intel report said.
