Did China deliver a snub to Myanmar’s military regime?

Beijing’s apparent failure to pick up on an invitation for China’s Premier Li Keqiang to attend a regional meeting in Myanmar has been interpreted as a subtle snub to Naypyidaw’s military rulers by one of their most powerful patrons.

China’s non-response to an invitation for a planned Lancang-Mekong Cooperation (LMC) summit comes amid increasing international isolation of the military regime in Myanmar and its inability to reduce armed opposition to its rule domestically and secure legitimacy internationally.

Established and led by China to promote “regional peace, stability and prosperity”, the LMC is made up of the five Southeast Asian countries through which the Mekong River flows: Laos, Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam. The Mekong is also known as the Lancang in the parts of China through which it passes from its source on the Tibetan Plateau.

Holding the LMC’s rotating chair in 2022, Myanmar was expected to host a summit of the organisation towards the end of last year, two sources familiar with planning for the event told Al Jazeera. Myanmar’s military leader Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, China’s Li, and leaders from the five Southeast Asian countries were expected to attend.

But the summit never happened when China failed to respond to an invitation.

“Beijing didn’t respond to the junta’s invitation and no date or attendance was set,” said Michael Ng, a former official in the Hong Kong government who has close diplomatic connections in Southeast Asia.

Ng, who was until recently deputy chief of the Hong Kong Economic and Trade Office in Bangkok, notes that no senior Chinese official has yet met in person with Min Aung Hlaing since the coup in February 2021.

Not responding to the LMC summit invitation may not have been a simple oversight, he said.

“China’s cold-shouldering is likely driven by the consideration that having Premier Li meeting Min Aung Hlaing implies full, official support for the military regime,” Ng said.

When China’s then-Foreign Minister Wang Yi attended an LMC ministers’ meeting in Myanmar’s Bagan in July 2022, he met his military-appointed Myanmar counterpart Wunna Maung Lwin.

Beijing’s no-show at the proposed summit also comes as Myanmar’s ministers have been barred from meetings of the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) after it failed to make progress in implementing the five-point peace plan drawn up by ASEAN in April 2021 to end the violence triggered by the military’s power grab.

Jason Tower, Myanmar country director at the United States Institute of Peace (USIP), also said Beijing had not responded to the military’s invitation.

“China did not follow up with a proposal to convene the Leader’s meeting in Myanmar before the end of 2022,” Tower told Al Jazeera.

By staying away, China appeared to signal that it would not prioritise its relationship with the military regime above its relationship with ASEAN countries, Tower said.

“Beijing’s concerns certainly included provoking strong blowback from ASEAN states, which view such a high-level convening involving the illegitimate military junta as undermining ASEAN’s consensus not to invite the junta’s participation in such meetings,” he said.

China “is not willing to undermine relationships with ASEAN in exchange for propping up a military regime that has thus far proven incapable of delivering with respect to China’s strategic economic plans”, he added.