Deadly Islamabad bombing sharpens focus on cross-border attacks in Pakistan

As funerals were held on Saturday for more than 30 people killed in a suicide bombing at a mosque in Islamabad, analysts warned the attack could be part of a broader attempt to inflame sectarian tensions in the country.

A suicide bomber struck the Khadija Tul Kubra Mosque, a Shia place of worship, in the Tarlai Kalan area of southeastern Islamabad during Friday prayers.
In a statement, the Islamabad administration said 169 people were transferred to hospitals after rescue teams reached the site.

Hours later, a splinter faction of the ISIL (ISIS) group in Pakistan claimed responsibility on its Telegram channel, releasing an image it said showed the attacker holding a gun, his face covered and eyes blurred.

Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif said mosque security guards tried to intercept the suspect, who opened fire before detonating explosives among worshippers. He alleged the attacker had been travelling to and from Afghanistan.

Security officials on Saturday told Al Jazeera that several key arrests had been made, including close family members of the suicide bomber in Peshawar and Karachi. They did not clarify whether there was evidence of their involvement in the plot.

Capital under fire?
Islamabad had seen a relative lull in violence in past years, but things have changed in recent months. The bombing marked the second major attack in the federal capital since a suicide blast targeted a district court in November last year.

Abdul Sayed, a Sweden-based analyst on conflict in Afghanistan and Pakistan, said ISIL’s Pakistan branch, referred to as ISPP, claimed responsibility for what appears to be its deadliest operation in the country since its formation in May 2019.
“Since its formation, ISPP has carried out approximately 100 attacks, more than two-thirds of which occurred in Balochistan. These attacks include three suicide bombings targeting Afghan Taliban members, police, and security forces in Balochistan,” Sayed, founder of the Oxus Watch research platform, told Al Jazeera.

Pakistan has witnessed a steady rise in violence from fighters over the past three years. Data released by the Pak Institute of Peace Studies for 2025 recorded 699 attacks nationwide, a 34 percent increase compared with the previous year.

Islamabad has repeatedly accused the Afghan Taliban, who returned to power in August 2021 following the withdrawal of United States forces, of providing a haven to armed groups that launch attacks inside Pakistan from Afghan soil.

The Afghan Taliban condemned Friday’s mosque bombing and have consistently denied sheltering anti-Pakistan fighters.

In October, this very issue ignited the deadliest border clashes between the two sides in years, which killed dozens of people and led to evacuations on both sides.

A United Nations report last year stated that the Afghan Taliban provides support to the Pakistan Taliban, or TTP, which has carried out multiple attacks across Pakistan.

The report also said the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) has ties with both the TTP and ISIL’s affiliate in Khorasan Province (ISKP), indicating a convergence of groups with distinct but intersecting agendas.

Just days ago, Pakistan’s military concluded a weeklong security operation in the restive southwestern Balochistan province, claiming the deaths of 216 fighters in targeted offensives.

A military statement on Thursday said it followed the province-wide attacks by the separatist BLA carried out to “destabilise the peace of Balochistan”.

Fahad Nabeel, who heads the Islamabad-based consultancy Geopolitical Insights, said Pakistan is likely to maintain its hardened stance towards Kabul, citing what he described as Afghanistan’s failure to act against anti-Pakistan fighter groups.

He added that officials would probably share preliminary findings of the investigation and point to a possible Afghan link.

“The upward trajectory of terrorist attacks witnessed last year is expected to continue this year. Serious efforts need to be made to identify networks of facilitators based in and around major urban centres, who are facilitating militant groups to carry out terrorist attacks,” Nabeel told Al Jazeera.