Canada’s Liberals bounce back after years of decline. What’s going on?

Just a few months ago, Canada’s governing Liberal Party seemed poised for a resounding 2025 election defeat.

Opinion polls showed Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s party trailing the opposition Conservatives by as many as 26 percentage points.An affordability crisis and widespread dislike of Trudeau had caused the Liberals’ support to plummet, and calls were growing for the embattled prime minister to resign ahead of a looming federal vote.

Yet now, experts say the political tide is shifting due to a range of factors, including Trudeau’s decision to resign, a Liberal leadership race that has boosted the party’s momentum, and US President Donald Trump’s repeated threats against Canada.

The Liberals have quickly narrowed the gap behind the Conservatives, according to recent surveys, with one poll published last week showing the party with a lead over the Tories for the first time since 2021.

“Two months ago, the Liberals were on the ropes, and many believed they were politically finished,” said Semra Sevi, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Toronto.