Can Saudi Arabia beat Japan to take major step towards 2026 FIFA World Cup?

After a draw and a win from its first two third-round qualifiers, Saudi Arabia faces its sternest test yet as it welcomes Group C leader Japan to Jeddah on Thursday night for a crunch clash in its bid to reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup in the United States, Canada and Mexico.

A disappointing opening draw with Indonesia was followed up by a vital away win against China in September but in Japan, the Green Falcons face a formidable foe that is capable of derailing its FIFA World Cup qualification ambitions.

Here, the top-of-the table clash as first place Japan takes on second-place Saudi Arabia in a FIFA World Cup qualification showdown at King Abdullah Sports City.

The context

Since taking over as Saudi Arabia coach in August 2023, Roberto Mancini has overseen a solid, if unspectacular, run of results. The Green Falcons recovered from a disappointing last-16 exit at the AFC Asian Cup in January to progress from its second-round FIFA World Cup qualification group – though it finished runner-up behind Jordan to make it through.

Mancini is still searching for the sort of statement result that could really kickstart his reign and a qualifier with Japan offers the perfect opportunity to do just that. Given the respective teams’ start to Group C, however, a Saudi Arabia win would be a major shock. While the Green Falcons labored to four points against Indonesia and China, Japan blew away its opponents – beating China 7-0 and Bahrain 5-0 – to cement its spot at the top of the standings.

Over the past 42 years, Saudi Arabia and Japan have shared many classic battles – facing off 18 times in all; Japan has won 11, Saudi Arabia has emerged victorious six times and the two nations have shared one draw. The biggest margin of victory in the fixture came in 2011 when Japan humbled its opponent 5-0 in the AFC Asian Cup group stage in Qatar.

The most recent match on Saudi soil was in October 2021, when the Green Falcons won a FIFA World Cup qualifier 1-0 thanks to a goal from Firas Al-Buraikan, who is expected to be involved again on Thursday. Of that team, only Al Ittihad’s Saleh Al-Shehri, Al Nassr’s Abdulrahman Ghareeb and Al Ettifaq’s Abdulellah Al-Malki made it into Mancini’s latest roster – demonstrating the Italian’s impact in overhauling his personnel.

Mancini’s work has been admirable but struggles in front of goal remain the status quo for the Saudi national team and the Italian’s selections in attack always attract the scrutiny of fans and journalists in the Kingdom. It is particularly pronounced on this occasion given that only two of his squad have scored more than one goal in this season’s Saudi Pro League: captain Al-Dawsari and Al Raed winger Saleh Al-Amri.

Saudi Arabia will also be missing one of its most important players for Thursday’s crucial match after Mohammed Kanno was sent off in the 2-1 win against China last time out. One of the team’s most experienced players, Kanno has been in impressive form for Al Hilal so far this season and his loss will be keenly felt by Mancini and his players. With a somewhat depleted squad, it feels as though Saudi Arabia has a mountain to climb if it is to overcome in-form Japan.

The coaches

The Saudi Football Federation has continued to back Roberto Mancini because, despite the unconvincing nature of some of his team’s performances, the Italian has continued to eke out results when they have been most needed. The Italian guided Saudi Arabia through its AFC Asian Cup group in first place in January and his side has successfully advanced to the final stage of FIFA World Cup qualifying.

Mancini has also strived resolutely to integrate new players into the Saudi national team and has been happy to cast aside established faces in a bid to freshen up his Green Falcons squads. For October’s qualifiers against Japan and Bahrain, only two players – captain Salem Al-Dawsari and striker Frias Al-Buraikan – have more than 40 international caps. Mancini has enjoyed a glittering coaching career with Manchester City, Inter Milan and the Italian national team; Saudi fans still hope he can imbue the Green Falcons with his winning touch.

The man Mancini will attempt to outwit is Hajime Moriyasu, who is one of the longest-serving national team coaches in world football having been at the Japan helm for six years, since being promoted from his role as former Blue Samurai boss Akira Nishino’s assistant. Moriyasu has overseen many impressive results, including historic wins against Germany and Spain at the 2022 FIFA World Cup, with the 56-year-old praised for helping Japan cast off the shackles and play more expansive attacking football.

Moriyasu was part of Japan’s playing squad at the 1992 AFC Asian Cup on home soil, a tournament that the hosts won thanks to victory over Saudi Arabia in the final. His only previous full-time coaching job was a four-year stint with J.League side Sanfreece Hiroshima, during which time he won the Japanese title three times. “As we’ve always done, we’ll prepare the best we can to win each match,” Moriyasu said ahead of the game against Saudi Arabia. “The hardest thing is the battle against the heat. Whether we can perform to our level will be key.”

The key battle: Ali Lajami vs Ayase Ueda

With experienced Al Hilal center-back Ali Al-Bulayhi missing for Saudi Arabia, there will be more pressure than usual on Ali Lajami – his most regular defensive partner for the Green Falcons in recent years. Lajami, who plays his club football for Al Nassr, scored an unfortunate own goal in September’s victory over China but redeemed himself with a resolute defensive display as Saudi Arabia earned a hard-fought three points. Lajami now regularly tests himself against high-quality attackers in both the Kingdom and the AFC Champions League Elite, and his improvement over the past two seasons has been notable.

For Saudi Arabia to have a realistic shot of getting a positive result, Lajami will need to marshal his defense effectively in Jeddah and – perhaps most importantly – keep Japan striker Ayase Ueda quiet. Ueda is the joint-top scorer in Asian World Cup qualifying for the 2026 tournament having netted eight times for the Blue Samurai since its campaign began last year. In Japan’s most recent outing against Bahrain, Ueda scored twice and he goes into the match against the Green Falcons with two goals in his past three club games for Dutch Eredivise side Feyenoord.

The prediction: Japan has been an irresistible attacking force in recent qualifiers so even a draw for Saudi Arabia would represent an excellent result. Roared on by a partisan home crowd in Jeddah, the Green Falcons should be capable of snatching a point.