As Iran crisis drags on, fears of global food catastrophe grow

In the nearly two months since the start of the Iran war, prices of fuel and fertiliser have surged worldwide.

The question now preoccupying economists and policymakers is when – and how hard – the fallout will hit the cost of food.
Analysts are in broad agreement that the true impact of the conflict has yet to be felt, due to the lag between rising agricultural input costs and higher prices on shelves.

They also agree that the severity of the fallout largely hinges on how long disruption to shipping continues in the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries about one-third of global seaborne fertiliser and one-quarter of seaborne oil.
The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) last week warned that a prolonged crisis in the strait, which Iran has closed in retaliation for the United States and Israel’s war, could lead to a global food “catastrophe”.

India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Somalia, Sudan, Tanzania, Kenya, and Egypt are among the countries most at risk, according to the FAO.

In an analysis last month, the World Food Programme said nearly 45 million more people could face acute food shortages if the conflict continues into the middle of the year and oil prices remain above $100 a barrel.