Could an earthquake shift the balance in Myanmar’s civil war?

As Myanmar slowly recovers from the magnitude 7.7 earthquake that killed thousands in March, an even greater catastrophe continues to shape the nation’s future – this one man-made.

Myanmar remains gripped by a civil war and after four years of fighting the military regime finds itself increasingly encircled.But the impact of the earthquake could prove decisive for the conflict in the coming year.

Striking in Myanmar’s central Sagaing Region on March 28, the quake killed at least 3,649 people, with more than 5,000 injured and 145 still missing, according to figures from the military government.

The seismic shock flattened houses, factories, Buddhist pagodas, apartment blocks and brought down bridges and ripped up roads in Sagaing city and nearby Mandalay.

It also disrupted electricity supplies to factories producing munitions for the military, said Tin Lin Aung, a former major in Myanmar’s army who defected to the resistance movement in 2022.

In a clear sign that military supplies are stretched, bullet and artillery casings recently captured from government forces bear this year’s manufacturing date, Tin Lin Aung said.The reported interruption to the military’s ammunition production comes as areas the army still controls in Myanmar are surrounded on almost all sides by longstanding ethnic armed groups and newer armed opposition forces.

Despite this, the military maintains an iron grip on the country’s major cities and core critical infrastructure.

Hemmed into urban strongholds, the military has tried to reverse its losses through indiscriminate air strikes and burning villages in rural areas – a campaign the United Nations suspects involves war crimes.‘More momentum than the military’
Sagaing city was devastated by the quake and it remains under military control, while much of the surrounding countryside is governed by a patchwork of resistance militias – such as the People’s Defence Force (PDF) – which are loosely coordinated by the opposition National Unity Government (NUG).

The NUG declared a truce in earthquake-affected areas until April 20, except for “defensive operations”, yet the military’s operations have continued.

According to the NUG, the Myanmar military’s aerial and artillery attacks killed at least 72 civilians between the quake striking on March 28 until April 8. Two more civilians, including a 13-year-old girl, died from bombing by military aircraft on April 10, the Myanmar Now news outlet reports.A Sagaing-based PDF fighter who requested anonymity said some rebel units had pivoted to relief efforts in central Myanmar even though their military adversaries were taking advantage of the lull in battle.

“Since the quake, the military has used the Sagaing-Monywa road more confidently because of the truce,” she said. But PDF forces in Sagaing expect fighting to intensify after the April truce is over.

“The PDF has more momentum than the military here,” she told Al Jazeera, adding that the NUG is now “coordinating better with ethnic armed organisations”.

“There will be more fighting in coming months,” said Ko Ko Gyi of the Sagaing PDF’s Battalion 3.Regional security analyst Anthony Davis said he doubted the earthquake would distract the military from its strategic objectives, adding that most soldiers had stayed in their garrisons rather than help with relief efforts.

“The military isn’t taking time off to save people. They’ll keep up the air strikes and, where possible, launch ground offensives to weaken the PDF,” Davis said.

But it is western Rakhine State – largely spared from the earthquake – that is still the most consequential battleground currently, he said.

There, the rebel Arakan Army (AA) has clashed with the military’s forces around the state capital Sittwe and Kyaukphyu, the site of a key pipeline that transports gas from across Myanmar to China.

The AA has simultaneously pushed out of its home territory in the west of the country and into Myanmar’s central heartlands in Magwe, Bago and Ayeyarwady regions, Davis said.