Trump’s attempt to topple Zelenskyy through elections could be catastrophic

On February 28, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy held a long-awaited meeting with US President Donald Trump in an attempt to persuade him to continue US support for Ukraine. The encounter was likely not what the Ukrainian head of state had expected.

Trump and US Vice President JD Vance chastised Zelenskyy in front of TV cameras for being “disrespectful” and for refusing to embrace their initiative for a ceasefire with Russia.

It is evident that Zelenskyy will not make a return to Washington during Trump’s presidency. It is also evident that US pressure on Ukraine will significantly escalate in the following weeks and months, as Trump presses Kyiv to make significant concessions to Russia in return for peace.

Even before the showdown at the White House, the Trump administration was questioning Zelenskyy’s legitimacy and pushing for presidential elections to be held. Holding a rushed election with the sole purpose of eliminating the incumbent, however, could spell disaster for the country.

Before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, approval ratings for Zelenskyy’s presidency were as low as 28 percent and 11 percent for his party. Russia’s full-scale invasion sent Ukrainians rallying behind the president and his popularity reached record highs. However, over the past two years, his approval ratings have been on a consistent decline. According to polls, trust in Zelenskyy fell from 54 percent in April 2024 to 49 percent in January – not as low as Trump has claimed, but a far cry from his 90 percent rating in May 2022.

Multiple factors have contributed to Zelenskyy’s declining popularity, including rampant corruption under his administration and the growing fatigue from the ongoing war.

The Ukrainian president – well aware of his vulnerability – has made clear that he is not comfortable with competition. For him, the stakes are high because if he were to lose a re-election bid, he could face prosecution for corruption or various forms of retribution from his rivals. The polls are already showing that if elections were to be held immediately, he would lose.

A formidable challenger to Zelenskyy has already emerged: Valerii Zaluzhnyi, a four-star general who served as commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces until February 2024. Polls show that Zaluzhnyi – if he were to run in a presidential vote – would defeat Zelenskyy. Public trust in him is among the highest and stood at 72 percent in January.

Although Zaluzhnyi was dismissed by the president on the heels of the failed Ukrainian counteroffensive in 2023, there have been speculations that his popularity in Ukraine may have also been a factor. The general was sent abroad to serve as the Ukrainian ambassador to the United Kingdom – a position he still occupies.