Hezbollah down but ‘far from out,’ top US intelligence official warns

A top US intelligence official said Tuesday that Hezbollah’s capabilities had been significantly degraded, but their ground forces along the border with Israel remain largely intact.

The official also said that the Lebanese group, armed and funded largely by Iran, still had the ability to conduct attacks abroad.

“It still remains down, but far from out,” said Brett Holmgren, the acting Director of the National Counterterrorism Center.

“Our assessment is that the Israeli military actions have significantly degraded Hezbollah’s military capabilities,” Holmgren said during a webinar with the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

But he warned that the group had built up a massive arsenal of rockets, missiles and other capabilities before the latest war with Israel. “They were starting at a very strong point,” Holmgren said.

Hezbollah began attacking Israel on Oct. 8 last year, a day after the Hamas attack on Israel. The ensuing Israeli response has decimated Gaza and spilled over into a full-blown war between Hezbollah and Israel across all of Lebanon. Hezbollah said on Tuesday that it had killed at least 100 Israeli soldiers and wounded 1,000 more since Israel invaded Lebanon for a fourth time last month.

The group has not revealed how many of its fighters have been killed, but some estimates suggest the number stands at over 1,000.

Israel has also wiped out the entire leadership of Hezbollah, including the leading officials who helped form the group in response to the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982. This invasion, which aimed to root out Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) forces from Lebanon, led to the formation of Hezbollah as a so-called resistance movement. The group’s secretary-general and his top deputies were all killed in separate Israeli strikes inside Lebanon’s capital of Beirut.

“The leadership losses have had an impact on their ability to organize and to strategically put together a way forward. But the ground forces in the south remain somewhat intact,” Holmgren said on Tuesday.

As for Hezbollah’s wing responsible for attacks and operations outside of Lebanon, Holmgren warned that these capabilities “have largely been untouched.” He specified the Islamic Jihad Organization (IJO) and other external components of Hezbollah as having suffered “little impact thus far.”

He added that the US continues to monitor indications of Hezbollah to escalate abroad.

Hamas still able to recruit

In Gaza, Hezbollah ally Hamas is still recruiting new members and fighters, Holmgren said.

While the group has been significantly diminished military, “they’re essentially morphing into an insurgent force on the group; they’re turning to small arms and hit-and-run different tactics.

“They’ve been forced to keep a very low profile.”

However, even a diminished Hamas has been able to recruit new members to its ranks and will likely continue being able to “so long as there is not another viable political option on the ground for these disaffected young men in Gaza.”

Holmgren stressed the urgent need to provide a better option to young men in Gaza in order to undermine the appeal of Hamas.