Is the significant rise in life expectancy finally slowing down? Why?

The “upper average” life expectancy has already passed 85 in some of the richer countries studied – about 88 for women and 82 for men.

The new study predicts that the maximum life expectancy will stop at about 87 years – 84 for men and 90 for women – which some countries are already close to achieving. After that, however, the average age at death would stop rising.

The focus of the study was what scientists call “life table entropy”, which suggests that there are limits to how far the longevity revolution can go.

“When you live out to these later and later ages, into your 70s, 80s, 90s, 100, you run into a problem,” says Olshansky. “That problem is the biological process of ageing itself, the ageing of our cells, tissues, organs, organ systems that we call senescence.

“So when you push out survival into an age window where they run up against an immutable force of biological ageing, the rise in life expectancy must slow down.”

Can we slow the ageing process?

Due to advances in medical technology, life expectancy will more than likely continue to nudge up, but there still remains a ceiling due to natural ageing. Therefore, the next step to continuing the “longevity revolution” is to slow the process of ageing itself, something Olshansky says he is “confident” could happen. It is certainly something being studied.

“Given rapid advances now occurring in geroscience, there is reason to be optimistic that a second longevity revolution is approaching in the form of modern efforts to slow biological aging, offering humanity a second chance at altering the course of human survival,” the study states.

Geroscience is the study of the biological process of ageing; in short, what makes our bodies age.

According to researchers, they can also study healthy centenarians (those who have reached the age of 100 years) and supercentenarians (those above 110 years) to understand the underlying conditions and environment that have contributed to their long lifespan.

Some individuals who live to old age may possess a genetic signature of sorts, further study of which may provide answers to the question of what causes longevity.

“There are likely to be specific genes that they possess that produce proteins in their body that protect them from the things that kill the rest of us at younger ages,” says Olshansky.

The study of other animals which have long lifespans may also offer insight. “This is one of the reasons why scientists want to study other long-lived species. How is it possible for a bowhead whale to live for 210 years? How is it possible for a Greenland shark to live for 500 years?” he added.

What did the study tell us about individual countries?

The study also revealed outcomes that were specific to countries. Although it is unclear as to the root cause of this discovery, Hong Kong is experiencing a stronger continuation of the increase in life expectancy than most countries.

The study found: “The highest population-specific probability of surviving to 100 occurred in Hong Kong where 12.8 percent of females and 4.4 percent of males are expected to reach age 100 in their lifetime based on life tables from 2019.”