What is behind the hype about the new Iran-China partnership?

The mainstream US media and think-tanks based along the Washington, DC, beltway have been gripped by two recent momentous developments in the Middle East, both interpreted as escalations in the geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran: the news of a prospective strategic partnership agreement between Iran and China, and the normalisation of relations between the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Israel.

In fact, the first development was a media creation. The New York Times (NYT) ran a front-page story citing a “leaked” draft of the 25-year strategic partnership agreement under negotiation between China and Iran since 2016.

It was provocatively headlined: Defying US, China and Iran near trade and military partnership.

“The investment and security pact would vastly extend China’s influence in the Middle East, throwing Iran an economic lifeline and creating new flashpoints with the United States,” read the accompanying blurb.

There was no mention of a military partnership in the reported draft agreement, however, and speculation that Iran could lease strategic Gulf islands to China was spread by former-president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and members of Iran’s parliament suspicious of Beijing’s intentions.

Nonetheless, the NYT headline set the breathless tone for the US media’s coverage of the August 13 establishment of diplomatic relations between Israel and the UAE.

It was not long before the US media was discussing how the UAE-Israel agreement represented the formation of a US-led grand alliance against a new “axis of evil” between Iran, China and possibly also Turkey.

This echoed earlier US media scoops about confidential negotiations between Israeli and Emirati leaders.

Gripping, is it not?

Well, it is also a disservice to the media’s audiences. There is no grand alliance or “evil axis” – just tentative diplomacy and proxy warfare amid shifts in the balance of power in the Middle East, necessitated in part by the withdrawal of US combat forces from the region, as well as the seepage of power to Beijing from Washington.

This information is not hard to come by. A little digging quickly uncovers the large, eloquent body of research and analysis that is maintained and constantly updated by very capable academics.

These genuine experts are easy to find on Twitter, where they share each other’s work and chat about the latest news.

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