Russia-Ukraine crisis: How Europe may cope if Putin shuts off gas
Determining the front lines of Europe’s potential energy conflict with Russia is no mean feat. Because should Russian President Vladimir Putin’s government decide to use what analysts often call Moscow’s “gas weapon”, the fallout would impact some European Union nations far more than others.
The variations in potential impacts stem from how different national energy markets are organised and legislated.
Around 35 percent of the EU’s natural gas comes from Russia. And as political tensions have mounted around the build-up of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border, there has been much discussion of whether Russia, the world’s biggest exporter of natural gas, might weaponise that dependency to get its way.
Of the 167.7 billion cubic metres of natural gas Europe imported from Russia in 2020, Germany bought the most – 56.3 billion cubic meters – followed by Italy, with 19.7 billion, and the Netherlands, with 11.2 billion.
But what really determines a country’s vulnerability to Moscow’s energy export policies is not how much it buys but what part Russian gas plays in its national energy mix.
For example, although Germany bought the most Russian gas in 2020 and natural gas adds up to around a third of its total energy consumption, Germany also gets gas from other sources. In 2020, the Norwegians supplied around 31 percent and the Dutch, around another 13 percent.
In neighbouring Austria, natural gas makes up about 20 percent of total energy consumption. But all of it comes from Russia.
For example, although Germany bought the most Russian gas in 2020 and natural gas adds up to around a third of its total energy consumption, Germany also gets gas from other sources. In 2020, the Norwegians supplied around 31 percent and the Dutch, around another 13 percent.
In neighbouring Austria, natural gas makes up about 20 percent of total energy consumption. But all of it comes from Russia.
Slovakia and Hungary have a similar problem. Around a third of their power comes from natural gas and a high percentage of that – about 70 and 90 percent, respectively – is from Russia.
So in many central and eastern European nations, the real question is what other options they would have if Russian gas stops coming.
