Tomorrow is election day in the United States and Donald Trump, Joe Biden, their running mates and their spouses will spend the last day of the presidential campaign in key battleground states looking for last-minute votes.
More than 94 million Americans have voted already by mail or via in-person early voting, which represents 68.4 percent of the overall 2016 vote total.
Where the candidates are today
Trump will hold five rallies in four states: North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Biden has four events across Pennsylvania and Ohio. Vice President Mike Pence and Biden’s running mate Kamala Harris will also spend the day in Pennsylvania. First Lady Melania Trump will campaign in North Carolina and Biden’s wife Jill is in Pennsylvania. Former President Barack Obama will also stump for Biden in Georgia and Florida today.
If the campaign schedules do not make it obvious, Pennsylvania has shaped up to be Ground Zero for both campaigns. Each believes they have a chance at winning the state’s 20 electoral votes, which Trump won in an extremely tight race in 2016.If Trump cannot repeat that feat this year, it significantly narrows his path to victory, especially if he also loses the other two Midwestern states he won by less than one percentage point: Michigan and Wisconsin.
The latest polls in Pennsylvania have shown Biden with a slim lead over Trump, but also suggest a tightening race in the final days.
A Monmouth University poll released this morning has Biden with a five to seven-point lead over Trump, depending on the turnout scenario. In a high-turnout situation, Biden leads by seven, but he has a five-point lead in a low-turnout scenario. Monmouth’s poll last month had Biden up 11 points and eight points in each of those scenarios. The poll’s margin of error is +/-4.4 percent.
Three other Pennsylvania polls released on Sunday give Biden between a six and seven-point lead with margins of error of 4.3 percent or below.
In other battlegrounds, factoring in new polls released over the weekend, Biden and Trump are statistically tied in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina, and Ohio, according to RealClearPolitics polling averages. Meanwhile, Biden holds an average lead of 5.1 percent in Michigan and 6.6 percent in Wisconsin.