COVID Vaccine to Generate $466 Billion Economic Benefits by 2025

Global equitable access to Covid-19 vaccines estimated to generate economic benefits of at least $153 billion in 2020–21, and $466 billion by 2025, in 10 major economies, according to a new report by the Eurasia Group, global political risk research and consulting firm.

As world leaders gather virtually at the Special Session of the General Assembly in response to the Covid-19 pandemic, new data published today finds that

Leaving low- and lower-middle-income countries (LLMICs) without access to vaccines amid the Covid-19 pandemic will cause significant economic damage that puts decades of economic progress at risk – for both LLMICs and advanced economies alike, the report said.

The report by the Eurasia Group analyses ten major economies – Canada, France, Germany, Japan, Qatar, South Korea, Sweden, the UAE, the UK and the US – to assess the economic benefits to advanced economies of contributing to the work of the Access to Covid-19 Tools (ACT) Accelerator.

The ACT Accelerator, led by WHO and partnering with the world’s leading international health organizations, is a unique global collaboration which supports the development and equitable distribution of the tests, treatments and vaccines the world needs to fight Covid-19.

However, the programme still has a significant funding gap of $28.2 billion – with $4.3 billion needed urgently to fast-track critical areas of work. If that shortfall isn’t met, low- and low-middle income countries will have delayed access to these vital tools in 2021, which will result in a protracted pandemic, with severe economic consequences, not just for these countries by also for the wider global economy.

The report, which was commissioned by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, finds that the economic benefits of a global equitable vaccine solution alone for the 10 countries included in the analysis would be at least $153 billion in 2020-21, rising to $466 billion by 2025. This is more than 12 times the $38 billion estimated total cost of the ACT Accelerator. This figure was compiled using the expected negative effects of sustained coronavirus outbreaks in LLMICs, based on the downside and baseline scenarios of the IMF’s October 2020 World Economic Outlook forecasts.

So far, the 10 countries featured in the report have contributed $2.4 billion to the work of the ACT Accelerator, with the UK committing just over $1 billion, and Germany, Canada, Japan and France committing $618 million, $290 million, $229 million and $147 million respectively.

The new report emphasizes the funding urgency and the return on investment for donor countries of the work of the ACT Accelerator, which published its Urgent Priorities and Financing Requirements on 10 November.

Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO Director-General, called on countries to commit to the work of the ACT Accelerator, stating that, “The ACT Accelerator is the global solution to ending the acute phase of the pandemic as quickly as possible by ensuring equitable access to Covid-19 tools. Contributing to the ACT Accelerator it is not just the right thing to do – it’s the smart thing for all countries – socially, economically and politically.”

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