Bolivia readies for long-delayed presidential election

Amid a pandemic and months of political turmoil, Bolivians say a tense calm has taken over the nation as voters prepare to head to the polls on Sunday.

The fraught rerun of Bolivia’s presidential elections comes at a time of deep divisions in the South American country and experts say the contest will be hard-fought – and may be decided in a runoff before the end of the year.

“There’s a fear that whatever the outcome of the election, there is going to be violence, and we have to be prepared for that,” said Jorge Derpic, assistant professor in sociology, Latin American and Caribbean studies at the University of Georgia.

“This is going to be a close election,” Derpic said.The leading contenders in the October 18 vote are former Economy Minister Luis Arce, the Movement for Socialism party (MAS) candidate who led an extended period of boom under ousted former President Evo Morales, and Carlos Mesa, a centrist former president.

Trailing behind in all the polls is Luis Fernando Camacho, a conservative protest leader, and Chi Hyun Chung, a Korean-born evangelist.

In Bolivian elections, to win outright, a candidate requires at least 40 percent of the votes in the first round, and a 10-point lead over the closest competitor.

“A second round would pit the MAS against Carlos Mesa, as Fernando Camacho would withdraw,” said John Crabtree, co-author of the book Bolivia: Processes of Change.

“Under those circumstances, Carlos Mesa would be the narrow victor,” Crabtree said.

Trailing behind in all the polls is Luis Fernando Camacho, a conservative protest leader, and Chi Hyun Chung, a Korean-born evangelist.

In Bolivian elections, to win outright, a candidate requires at least 40 percent of the votes in the first round, and a 10-point lead over the closest competitor.

“A second round would pit the MAS against Carlos Mesa, as Fernando Camacho would withdraw,” said John Crabtree, co-author of the book Bolivia: Processes of Change.

“Under those circumstances, Carlos Mesa would be the narrow victor,” Crabtree said.

Continuing unrest forced Mesa to step down. He then oversaw elections in 2006, which Morales won in a landslide.

Mesa, a historian and an intellectual, is considered a political outsider, but he commands substantial support, especially among Bolivia’s urban middle class.

Morales’s shadow

Overshadowing the vote, delayed twice because of the COVID-19 pandemic, is Morales, 60, a Left-wing leader and the nation’s first Indigenous president who held office for 14 years and ushered in an era of unprecedented stability and growth in the country.

Once widely popular, Morales alienated many Bolivians, especially middle-class voters, by insisting on running for a fourth term in office in defiance of a referendum against extending term limits.

Allegations of corruption and mismanagement also dogged his time in office.

That discontent was amplified on election night on October 20, when he claimed he was the outright winner after a lengthy unexplained pause in the publication of results – feeding suspicions of fraud and sparking outrage.